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Trends are the most important indicators in Presidential Polls

Posted on : 03-11-2012 | By : vlramirez | In : Joe Scarborough, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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We are obsessed with the daily poll numbers we get everyday from the press. I’ve been noticing some very disturbing trends in the reporting of polls on National TV.

I watch a lot of TV (Current TV, MSNBC and CNN) on a daily basis and have noticed that commentators are more likely to focus on the polls that lean their way. Many Democrats, me included, are hanging our hopes on Nate Silver. I watch his site day and night waiting for his latest projections. 

Every morning I watch Morning Joe on MSNBC. Joe Scarborough consistently points out the daily polls that give Mitt Romney an edge and discounts Nate Silver and his projection models over and over. On Thursday morning, even though he was not on the show that day, Joe Scarborough spent his morning dissing Nate Silver on Twitter. Here is Nate Silver’s response to Joe’s tweets:

Nate Silver tweets to Joe Scarborough

Margaret Sullivan on The New York Times Opinion Pages, quoted Joe Scarborough.

“Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes.”

The above words are those of Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program. He’s talking about Nate Silver, the statistics wizard whose FiveThirtyEight blog is licensed by The New York Times, and who writes for The Times frequently online as well as in print. Mr. Silver also has a desk in The Times’s newsroom.

The point I’m trying to make is that it’s all about the trend in the polls.  In this image of Nate Silver’s prediction from today, you can clearly see the down trend for President Obama after the first Presidential debate, the up trend after the second an third Presidential Debates and the sharp up trend after Hurricane Sandy.

Nate Silver's Presidential prediction from November 3, 2012

 

Hey Joe Scarborough, even you have to admit that it’s all about the trends and clearly, President Obama has the momentum to bring this home in a BIG way.

Joe, during the primaries you consistently said that Mitt Romney is a flawed candidate, yet now you are on the Romney bandwagon. Why would you back a flawed candidate, because he’s the best of the worst that ran for President on the Republican ticket? It’s pretty sad that you would back a man with little integrity who consistently lies to the American public just because he’s the last Republican standing. This is the same mindset that gave us Sarah Palin. Maybe you’re the joke Joe, not the rest of who are voting in the best interest of the country.

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